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MeSH Review:

Confidence Intervals

Khan, M.A. et al., Mills, J.L. et al., Powderly, W.G. et al., Arruda-Olson, A.M. et al., Hahn, S.A. et al., et al.

Csernansky, Mahmoud, Brenner, Chan, Chung, Suen, Lee, Leung, Leung, Wu, Lau, Hui, Lai, Chan, Sung, Bauer, Eriksson, Lassen, Turpie, Mohr, Thompson, Lazar, Levin, Sacco, Furie, Kistler, Albers, Pettigrew, Adams, Jackson, Pullicino, King, Wieand, Hale, Lee, Walsh, Owens, Tait, Ford, Dunn, Costantino, Wickerham, Wolmark, Fisher, Margolin, Kleber, Avants, Konefal, Gawin, Stark, Sorensen, Midkiff, Wells, Jackson, Bullock, Culliton, Boles, Vaughan, Lincoff, Califf, Van de Werf, Willerson, White, Armstrong, Guetta, Gibler, Hochman, Bode, Vahanian, Steg, Ardissino, Savonitto, Bar, Sadowski, Betriu, Booth, Wolski, Waller, Topol,

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Disease relevance of Confidence Intervals

As compared with parous women who did not lactate, the relative risk of breast cancer among women who first lactated at less than 20 years of age and breast-fed their infants for a total of six months was 0.54 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.36 to 0.82) [1].
After further adjustment for total cholesterol, hypertension, and smoking, this hazard ratio remained close to 1.0 (hazard ratio, 1.2; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.6 to 2.4) [2].
The cumulative rate of cardiac end points at five years was 27.3 per 1,000 in the gemfibrozil group and 41.4 per 1,000 in the placebo group--a reduction of 34.0 percent in the incidence of coronary heart disease (95 percent confidence interval, 8.2 to 52.6; P less than 0.02; two-tailed test) [3].
RESULTS: The rates of HIV infection (cases per 100 woman-years) were 6.7 in the nonoxynol 9 group and 6.6 in the placebo group (rate ratio, 1.0; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.7 to 1.5) [4].
In a case-control study of the risk of adenocarcinoma of the endometrium in relation to conjugated-estrogen use, we found that 31 per cent of 425 women with endometrial cancer and 15 per cent of 792 controls reported having used conjugated estrogens; the rate-ratio estimate was 3.5 with a 95 per cent confidence interval of 2.6 to 4 [5].

Psychiatry related information on Confidence Intervals

Of 1007 patients with signs and symptoms compatible with a diagnosis of Huntington's disease, 995 had an expanded CAG repeat that included from 36 to 121 repeats (median, 44) (sensitivity, 98.8 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, 97.7 to 99.4 percent) [6].
RESULTS: All-cause mortality at 1 year occurred in 692 (8.38%) of 8260 patients in the reteplase group and 698 (8.38%) of the 8328 patients in the combination therapy group (hazard ratio [HR], 1.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90-1.11; P>.99) [7].
Statin use was inversely associated with prevalence of dementia (adjusted odds ratio, 0.44; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.94) [8].
In a multivariate logistic regression model, risk factors for PCP among patients in HIV care were patient non-adherence [odds ratio (OR), 12.4; 95% confidence interval (CI), 6.4-23.5], use of prophylaxis other than trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (OR, 27.0; 95% CI, 13.8-52.9), and absence of antiretroviral use (OR, 7.5; 95% CI, 4.5-12.5) [9].
For men, the results were inconsistent and associated with wide confidence intervals; high total HDL and HDL3 were positively associated with incidence of type 2 diabetes in models further controlled for fasting insulin level, but the risk estimates were attenuated in models further controlled for alcohol consumption [10].

High impact information on Confidence Intervals

The Kaplan-Meier estimate of the risk of relapse at the end of the study was 34 percent for the risperidone group and 60 percent for the haloperidol group (P<0.001); the risk ratio for relapse with haloperidol, from the Cox model, was 1.93 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.33 to 2.80; P<0.001) [11].
RESULTS: During a mean follow-up period of 2.8 years, there were 99 strokes or deaths among the women in the estradiol group, and 93 among those in the placebo group (relative risk in the estradiol group, 1.1; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.8 to 1.4) [12].
The fondaparinux group had a significantly lower incidence of venous thromboembolism by day 11 (12.5 percent [45 of 361 patients]) than the enoxaparin group (27.8 percent [101 of 363 patients]; reduction in risk, 55.2 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, 36.2 to 70.2; P<0.001) [13].
The primary end point of death or recurrent ischemic stroke was reached by 196 of 1103 patients assigned to warfarin (17.8 percent) and 176 of 1103 assigned to aspirin (16.0 percent; P=0.25; hazard ratio comparing warfarin with aspirin, 1.13; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.92 to 1.38) [14].
Among users of other NSAIDs, the probability of recurrent bleeding was 18.8 percent for patients receiving eradication therapy and 4.4 percent for those treated with omeprazole (absolute difference, 14.4 percent; 95 percent confidence interval for the difference, 4.4 to 24.4 percent; P=0.005) [15].

Chemical compound and disease context of Confidence Intervals

Furthermore, we observed a reduction of 55 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 30 to 77 percent) in the number of total cerebrovascular accidents in the warfarin group as compared with the placebo group (44 vs. 20; P = 0.0015) [16].
The adjusted odds ratio for having an infant with a neural-tube defect among those receiving the recommended daily allowance of folate was 0.97 as compared with the mothers of abnormal infants (95 percent confidence interval, 0.79 to 1.18) and 0.98 as compared with the mothers of normal infants (95 percent confidence interval, 0.80 to 1.20) [17].
Of the 32 invasive fungal infections, 17 were cryptococcosis (2 in the fluconazole group and 15 in the clotrimazole group; adjusted relative hazard, 8.5; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.9 to 37.6) [18].
A decrease of at least 75 percent in the plasma level of HIV-1 RNA over the first six months of zidovudine therapy accounted for 59 percent of the benefit of treatment, defined as the absence of progression to AIDS (95 percent confidence interval, 13 to 112 percent) [19].
As compared with women in the lowest fifth of the cohort with respect to vitamin E intake, those in the top fifth had a relative risk of major coronary disease of 0.66 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.50 to 0.87) after adjustment for age and smoking [20].

Biological context of Confidence Intervals

After a median follow-up of 35 months, invasive fungal infections had developed in 4.1 percent of the patients in the fluconazole group (9 of 217) and in 10.9 percent of those in the clotrimazole group (23 of 211; relative hazard, as adjusted for the CD4+ count, 3.3; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.5 to 7.6) [18].
The 95 percent confidence intervals for the difference between the controls and hypertensive patients in the ratio of endothelium-dependent vasodilatation induced by acetylcholine or carbachol to endothelium-independent vasodilatation induced by nitroprusside were -14 to +23 percent for acetylcholine and -13 to +12 percent for carbachol [21].
After sildenafil use, resting systolic blood pressure was reduced from 135 (19) mm Hg to 128 (17) mm Hg, for a mean change of -7 mm Hg (95% confidence interval [CI], -9 to -4 mm Hg; P<.001) [22].
RESULTS: Intent-to-treat analysis of urine samples showed a significant overall reduction in cocaine use (odds ratio, 1.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.74; P =.002) but no differences by treatment condition (P =.90 for acupuncture vs both control conditions) [23].
RESULTS: The birth prevalence of NTDs reported on birth certificates decreased from 37.8 per 100 000 live births before fortification to 30.5 per 100 000 live births conceived after mandatory folic acid fortification, representing a 19% decline (prevalence ratio [PR], 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75-0.87) [24].

Anatomical context of Confidence Intervals

The median length of time to the first negative cerebrospinal fluid culture was 42 days (95 percent confidence interval, 28 to 71) in the amphotericin B group and 64 days (95 percent confidence interval, 53 to 67) in the fluconazole group (P = 0.25) [25].
RESULTS: Probable germ-line BRCA1 mutations were identified in 13 of the 374 women (3 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, 2 to 6 percent) [26].
The odds ratio for such cardiac-valve abnormalities was 12.7 (95 percent confidence interval, 2.9 to 56.4) with the use of dexfenfluramine alone, 24.5 (5.9 to 102.2) with the use of dexfenfluramine and phentermine, and 26.3 (7.9 to 87.1) with the use of fenfluramine and phentermine [27].
RESULTS--The highest transmission risk (TR) was associated with maternal p24 antigenemia (TR, 71%; relative risk [RR], 3.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7 to 5.2) and maternal CD8+ lymphocyte counts of at least 1.80 x 10(9)/L (1800/microL) (TR, 50%; RR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2 to 4.2) [28].
RESULTS: BRCA1 mutation carriers were at a statistically significantly increased risk for several cancers, including pancreatic cancer (RR = 2.26, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.26 to 4.06, P =.004) and cancer of the uterine body and cervix (uterine body RR = 2.65, 95% CI = 1.69 to 4.16, P<.001; cervix RR = 3.72, 95% CI = 2.26 to 6.10, P<.001) [29].

Associations of Confidence Intervals with chemical compounds

The difference in the change in LDL cholesterol concentration between the two groups was -21 mg per deciliter (95 percent confidence interval, -14 to -29; P < 0.001) [30].
One third of the mean blood glucose concentration fell outside the confidence intervals physicians used to bound their estimates [31].
At age six, 2 of 17 controls had a serum creatinine level less than 1.0 mg per deciliter, as compared with 17 of 27 patients treated with cysteamine for at least one year (odds ratio, 12.8; 95 percent confidence interval, 2.1 to 33.9) [32].
The risk of advanced-stage carcinoma was fourfold for estrogen users, but rhe confidence interval was wide, and this question requires further study [33].
Major bleeding occurred in four patients assigned to standard heparin (2.0 percent) and one patient assigned to low-molecular-weight heparin (0.5 percent; difference, 1.5 percentage points; 95 percent confidence interval, -0.7 to 2.7) [34].

Gene context of Confidence Intervals

RESULTS: Of 33 patients with multiple primary melanomas, 5 (15 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, 4 percent to 27 percent) had germ-line CDKN2A mutations [35].
For the overall study population, the five-year cumulative survival rates in the groups with high and low levels of MRP expression were 57 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 37 to 78 percent) and 94 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 86 to 100 percent), respectively [36].
Of 8 patients with BRCA1 mutations, 5 received tamoxifen and 3 received placebo (risk ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 0.32-10.70) [37].
Separately, the presence of PAH-dGMP adducts was associated with the GSTM1 null genotype (absence of the gene) (odds ratio = 8.6; 95% confidence interval = 1.03-100) [38].
RESULTS: Three (12%, exact 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2% to 30%) families carried germline frameshift mutations in the BRCA2 gene that are predicted to result in a truncated BRCA2 protein [39].

Analytical, diagnostic and therapeutic context of Confidence Intervals

This difference reflected a 24 percent decrease in the combined risk of death or hospitalization with carvedilol (95 percent confidence interval, 13 to 33 percent; P<0.001) [40].
After adjustment for base-line differences between the two groups, the odds ratio for treatment failure in the placebo group, as compared with the octreotide group, was 3.3 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.5 to 7.3) [41].
In study 1, the rate of success (termination of pregnancy and complete expulsion of the conceptus) was 96.9 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 94.1 to 97.7 percent)--similar to the success rate of approximately 95 percent for mifepristone followed by the intramuscular or intravaginal administration of prostaglandin [42].
For the highest-dose category of acetaminophen intake, 9100 mg/wk or more, the odds of having an INR greater than 6.0 were increased 10-fold (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6-37.9) [43].
Intravenous cocaine use significantly increased the risk of HIV infection, with a seroprevalence of 35% in daily cocaine users (odds ratio, 6.4; 95% confidence interval, 3.0 to 13.3) [44].

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